After winning the last race in Aragon, Marquez is now just one step away from his sixth title in the strongest competition. For that, however, he has to score at least two points more than Andre Dovizioso in Thailand this weekend. In other words, Marquez will be the champion if he leaves Thailand with at least a 100-point advantage over his closest pursuer.
Possible scenarios according to which he will become a world champion are:
Marquez is second, Dovizioso finishes third or worse,
Marquez is third, Dovizioso finishes fourth or worse,
Marquez is fourth, Dovizioso finishes fifth or worse,
Marquez is fifth, Dovizioso finishes seventh or worse,
Marquez is sixth, Dovizioso finishes eighth or worse,
Marquez is seventh, Dovizioso finishes ninth or worse,
Marquez is eighth, Dovizioso finishes tenth or worse,
Marquez is ninth, Dovizioso finishes eleventh or worse,
Marquez is tenth, Dovizioso finishes twelfth or worse,
Marquez is eleventh, Dovizioso finishes thirteenth or worse,
Marquez is twelfth, Dovizioso finishes fourteenth or worse,
Marquez is thirteenth, Dovizioso is fifteenth or worse,
Marquez is fourteenth, Dovizioso does not score points
Given that the Spaniard finished in first or second place in all of this year’s races, we can focus primarily on the first three scenarios. In addition, Marquez also won last year's premiere race after beating Dovizioso after a tense fight.
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